Response to Thom Hogan's article about Nikon's and Canon's DSLR strategy

Thom Hogan is a Nikon user manual writer, who is also known as a blogger that writes about cameras and the photography industry. He's often engaged in various photography forums, writing endlessly long comments and opinions. In one of his latest blog posts titled The DSLR Cash Cow is Alive For How Long? he laments the iterative updates by Canon and Nikon in the shape of their recent D780 and 1DX Mark III releases. In one of his initial paragraphs he says following:

What I'm seeing is the traditional Milk the Cow approach to the DSLR to mirrorless transition, and not an overly well done version of that, too. All the accountants in charge at Canon and Nikon appear to think that there's still "some money" left in the DSLR till they can extract, but they don't want to spend too much in money or effort to get it out.

I wonder, if Mr. Hogan checked the Camera & Imaging Products Association's market numbers of the past 3 years, the camera and lens shipments are in a steep decline across the board, not only DSLRs. The overall market is down, because people just don't buy that many cameras anymore as they used to. So of course Nikon and Canon will not invest their shrinking profits into a market that is contracting, the best they can do right now is to limit and lower costs, and issue iterative updates, because the DSLR market is still there (due to a huge installed base), and people still do update their cameras, just at a slower pace. Both brands have to walk a very fine line right now, the margin for error is slim.

This part really made me roll my eyes, I cannot believe that he wrote this:

In my "better DSLR" article I left out a number of things that could have been done to sustain DSLRs. For example, instead of the current LCD overlay system Nikon uses in the optical viewfinder, they could have put in an OLED-based one. That technology exists, and it exists well enough to basically build a hybrid-type DSLR. Only problem? It adds costs. Guess what Canon and Nikon are 100% averse to right now? Costs.

If he believes that an OLED-screen in a DSLR will suddenly excite the general public to start buying more cameras, he must be living in a bubble. There's absolutely nothing any manufacturer can do to revive the market until we reach the rock bottom, which will be the market that existed before the digital camera boom some 15-20 years ago. It's not like the camera industry lacks innovation: Sony launched a full frame camera with 61 megapixels (the Alpha A7R iv), Fuji launched a camera with a flip-in screen (the X-Pro3), Nikon launched a camera with a 125x optical zoom (the CoolPix P1000). We still have very cheap entry level DSLR kits, we still have micro-four thirds cameras, even Pentax and Olympus are still alive and launching new products on a regular base. Yet, the shipments keep going down, so of course something's gotta give eventually. Manufacturers need to cut costs somewhere. It's not by choice, it's by necessity. They have production costs, R&D costs, marketing costs, service costs, and of course overhead. Nikon and Canon are doing their best to maximize their profits in the currently very bleak market situation, because that's what their shareholders expect. Unfortunately Thom Hogan just isn't capable to comprehend that, as that is outside of his knowledge domain.

Reactions on the Fred Miranda forums

The reactions to Thom's article on Fred Miranda forums were strong and unanimous. Mr. Ikka Nissila, a respected member of Fred Miranda, had this to say about Hogan's article (source):

He is saying that these DSLR cameras are not worth the upgrade for most, as he wants everyone to buy all-new mirrorless systems rather than use the existing systems that they have (and only sometimes buy a new camera or lens). He wants a disruption that changes the technology so that the boom can return to the camera business. But what he doesn't understand is that since long ago, most of us have already gotten all the things that we could possibly need and, above all, this is a good thing. Mirrorless won't create another boom and that's the way it should be. The gear that already exists should be used until it can no longer be repaired (and then recycled) and only then new purchases should be made, with whatever technology is current at the time.

He wants a prosperous camera business that will forever keep growing. I want a world where unnecessary consumption is avoided, because I actually care about the future of the planet and the future of humanity. All the industrial products that are made should be recycled by the manufacturers and the cost of this should be included in the purchase price. This should be mandatory and the license to manufacture new products should be contingent on proving that all the previous products have indeed been collected and recycled instead of thrown into dumps in Africa or the Oceans.

Not buying new things in order to save the environment is another cause you are going to lose. People are just not built that way.

It's not the way people are built in the DNA, but something that advertising, social media, youtube, etc. creates of us, by making us associate our self-worth with things we own rather than for example the friends and activities that we participate in, or things we learn. All the world is spinning around consumption and this would quickly end if advertising were forbidden. It's not that we'd go out of our way to find stuff to buy, things that we don't need and don't know that exits.

Another well respected Fred Miranda member, artist and professional photographer Ronno has this to say in response to Thom Hogan (source):

So Nikon should have “just retired” their best selling full frame DSLR?? The cash cow!? I’m guessing that camera is number one or number two for wedding photographers around the world. So yes, it’s a professional camera. Makes a lot of sense to me for them to add amazing video capabilities to this high seller - as in the new D780. I bought the original D750 for $2300, so the price of the D780 seems very fair to me.

(As an aside I am a commercial photographer, shooting in studios at Google, Williams-Sonoma, Macys, Sephora, Amazon, etc. etc.
In these studios we purchase five or 10 DSLRs at a time.
Do you know how many mirrorless cameras are in use in those studios? Zero.)

Member Rattymouse chimed in with his observation on the matter that confirms what I have said above (source):

Of course sales are going to drop. Photography is an old person's hobby. And they are dying off every year. Less people to buy new gear.

I live by a major university with 49,000 students. I can go 6 months between times I spot a student with a digital camera. Young people have no interest in traditional camera gear. It's 100% mobile phones that take their photos. As such, traditional camera sales will continue to tank in 2020.

Jonathan F, a well respected and highly regarded member of Fred Miranda had this to add on the issue (source):

I think 2020 might be the reemergence of the DSLR. Over the weekend, I met up with a photography enthusiast group over beers. The vibe I was getting is that people were leaning back into DSLR cameras again. Prices are affordable, lenses are plentiful, and people are appreciating the optical viewfinder and haptics from using an SLR form factor.

I tend to shoot both...my take is I still prefer DSLRs for action and MILCs for travel and portrait work. MILC focus precision with fast aperture glass is spot-on perfect for me almost all the time. The ease of DSLRs for focus tracking and low light acquisition via strobes/flash while shooting stopped down can't be replaced by mirrorless. It's best to view each as different tools for different jobs.

Beloved forum member 1bwana1 added the following (source):

For those of you who think Nikon is wasting its time with new DSLR cameras, you may want to review the just announced Awards for camera sales in Japan. Nikon has gained meaningful market share in this category. Closing in on Canon. Make sure you click on the "Past Rankings" link in the different categories to see changes over time. It may change some views in these dynamic times. Of the big three each has its strengths and weaknesses. The smaller companies mostly just look weak and getting weaker.

What is clear is that currently Nikon has very good financial reasons for pursuing the "DSLR Cash Cow". She still has plenty of milk left to produce.

https://www.bcnaward.jp/award/gallery/detail/contents_type=251

Photographer Jorgen Udvang posted a chart that highlights the market share by camera brand in Japan, where apparently Nikon had made significant gains at the end of last year (source):



Discussion

Do you agree with Thom Hogan? Did Nikon and Canon mis-manage their DSLR business in the last years?