Taiwan coronavirus lockdown might happen very soon

April 4, 2020



Over 2 months in into the global coronavirus crisis, Taiwan has always been a step ahead of the issue. Until this very moment as I am writing this, there has not been a nation wide or even a city level lockdown like it's common in most other countries. Life here is relatively normal: Schools and offices are open, so are restaurants and shops, as well as public transportation. Here in Taipei specifically I'd say 80% of the people wear masks in public, inside the Taipei Metro it's above 95%, on the streets it's less because there's also easier to keep a certain distance to others. How it's in other cities around the country I don't know, but friends tell me people in Tainan are much less conscious about wearing a mask and taking precaution. Northern Taiwanese are generally known as being more serious and uptight as compared to Southerners.

Enjoying a life of relative safety with no large local spread of the coronavirus so far, we've been looking to China, Korea, Italy and lately USA and observed how one country after another started to fall to this virus due to carelessness and negligence. I mean, back in the States they were still discussing the effectiveness of masks until a few days ago, and finally CDC recommended wearing them after months of saying the contrary (and yes, here's the proof that masks limit the spread). We were the world champ of the coronavirus fight so far, cited in media around the world as one of the best examples of how a country should tackle this issue. Then came this Thursday and Friday, which are national holidays, and this happened:


Several reports came out from popular spots around the country, such as Kenting and Daxi, where hordes of people went there on holidays and flooded the streets. This is the perfect situation for the coronavirus to spread, we've seen it in other countries. The government has quickly ordered that such gatherings at certain popular spots should be forbidden, and police has the power to disperse people as well as fine them. I've already written about how human selfishness will make Taiwan lose grip on the issue, and I have been right: The imported cases have spiked significantly since I posted that, and with that we now have daily cases of unknown local transmission. It might be 1-2 cases per day last week, but that can quickly change. The virus is inside Taiwan and spreading, there's no doubt about that. And allowing people to go on holiday to popular spots is a recipe for a bigger outbreak and a subsequent lockdown 1-2 weeks from now.

Unfortunately I have been right so far in all my predictions. I strongly and firmly hope I am wrong on this one. I hope we are lucky, I hope we did such a great job in the months before that this holiday won't spoil everything for the rest of the country which is following social distancing rules and mainly remaining at home. Despite these large groups, this is still a tiny minority of Taiwanese who are doing this. We're a nation of 23 million after all. Unfortunately, the virus loves overpopulated places, because it can spread easily. Everybody in Taiwan should cancel any kind of holidays, and appreciate that they can still go out on a walk and buy a coffee in the nearby 7 Eleven. All that might be taken away from us just because someone had to walk around a street in another county with bubble tea in their hands. I strongly hope that countries in the develop world really pull together this April and push these virus numbers down, produce more masks and other equipment, and figure out an exit strategy. People can't stay inside for month, the economy will crater, and the consequence of that will be by far worse than what we're seeing in hospitals right now. Mankind has to learn how to live with this virus, it won't go away for a long time. It's the economy that enables us the health care system that we enjoy right now, without the economy everything that we have will go downhill very fast. Good luck to all of us.

Top image: Busy streets of Daxi from years ago during one of my trips.
Labels: , ,

No comments:

Post a Comment

Please comment on topic. Spam, off-topic stuff, and hate speech will be removed.

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)