Living in Taipei during the novel coronavirus scare - a month later

A month ago I wrote a post called Living in Taiwan during the novel coronavirus scare. That was at a time when the virus just made news all over the world, and the first cases started to appear outside China: Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan were among those countries that had reported single digit cases at that time, while the majority of cases were still reported out of Wuhan. It was a very scary time, a time of great anxiety for me personally, as well as for Taiwanese people in general. We were not sure what was happening, and what will happen. A month later things look so much different from this side of the world, so let me share my perspective.

Suddenly Taiwan appears safer than the rest of the world

I have to admit that a month ago I was considering to go back home, if Taiwan gets as bad as China. That wouldn't have been the only reason to head back to the West, as I was already contemplating my return last year, but then some things happened in between and I wasn't able to do it, so I said to myself I will stay here for a little while longer. Then out of nowhere this coronavirus came about, and kind of messed up all my plans for the near future. While I initially thought I better quickly pack and leave, I then realized it's better to stay where I am right now, and wait and see, as well protect myself and my close ones as best as possible. Right now, a month later, this looks like the right decision.

The Taipei Metro has a very eerie feel to it.

Taiwan acted swiftly and executed well

The 2002 SARS outbreak was one of the biggest challenges Taiwan faced this millennium. While Taiwan usually has to deal with typhoons, floods and earthquakes, SARS was a different kind of beast, and actually prepared the government as well as the society very well how to deal with such challenges (the Diplomat and other news outlets wrote about it). The just re-elected government did a great job in containing the influx from China. The Ministry of Health is very well prepared, they are isolating every case well and informing the public about everything on a regular basis. Masks, which were sold out quickly right after Lunar New Year, have been rationed after domestic production was ramped up. Every day a citizen can buy 3 for adults and 5 for kids at normal prices. Hospitals are prepared since the days of SARS, and people generally remain calm. Based on my eye test about 70-80% of people in Taipei wear masks, and keep personal distance (something that wasn't common before). A lot of people stay at home most of the time, keep their outside movement to a minimum (streets are much more empty), and everybody's washing hands. Schools, banks and other office buildings are measuring temperature upon entrance, disinfection sprays and liquid soaps are provided everywhere in public buildings. Most people are really careful in how they go about their business, everybody is taking this threat very seriously. As of today Taiwan only has reported 45 cases with 1 death about 6 weeks since the coronavirus became a global issue. Meanwhile South Korea reported over 7000 cases, Iran over 6000 and Italy over 5000 cases. Countries like Germany and France have reported nearly 1000 cases each, while several other countries like Japan, Spain, UK, USA and many more report numbers in hundreds, and it just looks like the beginning. The outbreak seems to be in full swing in Europe and slowly increasing in the States, where experts predict numbers in 1000s two weeks from today.

Taiwan is safe for now, but...

Taiwan right now is definitely a safer place to be than any Western country, but one thing does concern me: As the numbers start to grow in other parts of the world like in South Korea, Iran, and most of Europe, this will also increase the likelihood of Taiwan getting more virus cases into the country again. We were able to weather the initial threat from China, but now that this virus has become a pandemic, it will be much harder to keep it away from us. We're an island that heavily depends on exchanges with foreign countries, be it in trade and tourism. There's no way we can cut ourselves from the rest of the world, we're not able to self sustain, and our economy has already taken a hit. Taiwan is heavily dependent on foreign markets (in particular on China, Europe and North America), as our economy is very export driven. These markets are now in big trouble, because the consumer demand is down. Secondly, Taiwan depends heavily on production in China, and factories are running at a very low capacity right now. Bottom line is: Goods are not being produced for that limited demand that still exists, so revenues will drop significantly. Now I'm not yet worried about the recession, I think Taiwan can take a hit for a quarter and recover from it (we have a lot of foreign reserves), but the longer this issue persists, the more dangerous it will be for a serious hit and grave consequences.

People trying to live their lives during the coronavirus scare.

I'm kind of in-between now

If you ask me how I feel about the situation right now, I'd say I am not anxious as I used to be, but I am also not very positive. I'm not sure how much longer Taiwan can keep the virus levels under control, and I'm not sure how much of a hit the economy will take from this. I can only hope that this will pass as soon as possible. I know that back in the States this issue is actually just reached the mainstream media, and of course the government was caught with their pants down. I foresee this as becoming a huge issue over there very soon, but I also think it will affect bigger cities more than rural America. All in all I believe humanity will definitely survive this, and hopefully learn from how to deal with a pandemic like this in the future. We really need to do better. With that said, I don't want to be a test bunny, so I will continue to restrict my life, wear mask every time I go out, and manically wash hands, door knobs and other items that could attract the virus. I'm not sure whether it will work, but I have no other choice. I'll probably write another in a month from now. Keep safe!